ADMK vs DMK: Who will win in the TN Elections? A look into the predictions of a survey!

2021 is going to be a big and challenging year of the Election Commission of India as the deadline of the assemblies of the crucial states is coming to end during the first half of the year. With multi-phased races, the Chief Electoral body won't be having an easy task right from the election dates to the formation of the new governments.     

The states like Tamil Nadu, Kerala, West Bengal, Assam, and Puducherry are going for polls and the voters of these states are preparing with the yardstick of making a critical judgment on who should rule them for the next five years. As these states would make BJP lose its sleep with its motive of flipping them under its control, the survey that took recently had predicted who will win the states of Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam, and West Bengal. 

As per the IANS C-Voter Battle for the States survey, in a crucial battle between ADMK and DMK, DMK is set to make a strong comeback to power by ousting the ADMK's regime led by Edappadi Palaniswami. The survey has predicted that DMK and Congress alliance would emerge to power with a comfortable majority in Tamil Nadu. In the 234-member assembly of Tamil Nadu, DMK and its alliance are projected to win big with a two-thirds majority. 

The survey has said the DMK alliance would win 162 seats of the 234- member assembly, which is 64 seats more than what DMK has got in the 2016 assembly polls. If the election in Tamil Nadu goes as per the survey, MK Stalin would become the next Chief Minister by taking the reign from the ADMK regime. As per the survey, the ADMK would stumble in the polls and the party won't even get 100 seats. 

The survey said ADMK will get 64 seats, losing 72 seats of what it had won in 2016 when the party was led by Jayalalithaa. The survey had shocked the ADMK and its alliance including BJP as the Tamil Nadu ruling ADMK would see a plunge due to the lack of strong leadership. Tamil Nadu's neighboring Kerala is expected to give a major blow to BJP like Tamil Nadu as the survey has predicted that Pinarayi Vijayan would be retaining the power in the state. 

As per the survey, Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan will be gaining a majority with 85 seats in the 140-member assembly. While Vijayan would see a decline in the number of seats as his party had won 91 seats in 2016, he continues to remain extremely popular with more than 46.7% of voters set to make him the preferred choice whereas the Congress-led United Democratic Front will get 53 seats, up 6 seats from 47 seats in the 2016 assembly polls. 

Along with Tamil Nadu and Kerala, the survey has predicted that West Bengal ruling Trinamool Congress will retain the power in the state. TMC chief Mamata Banerjee and BJP are in a heated war with each other to win the legislative elections in West Bengal. According to the survey, Mamata's Trinamool Congress is projected to win 154 seats, down 53 from the 211 seats it got in 2016 while BJP is expected to make gains in the election. The Central ruling party is predicted to make an influential breakthrough in the state by winning up to 102 seats from just 3, a gain of 99 seats. 

The survey has also made predictions in the upcoming assembly polls in Assam. In Assam, the ruling BJP led by Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal is expected to make a comeback and retain his rule in the state. According to the survey, in the 126-seat assembly, the ruling BJP-led NDA is expected to win 77 seats as per the latest projections, down 9 seats from 86 in 2016, while the UPA is set to gain 14 seats to go up to 40 seats from 26 in 2016 and as far as Puducherry in concerned, ADMK is predicted to make gains. 

According to reports, the survey had a sample size of over 15,000 in Tamil Nadu, over 6,000 in Kerala, over 18,000 in West Bengal, over 1,000 in Puducherry, and over 5,000 in Assam. The survey had brought happy news for the ruling parties of West Bengal, Kerala, and Assam while it had shocked the Tamil Nadu ruling ADMK and Puducherry. 

 

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