For the Congress party that has been suffering from back-to-back setbacks from recent electoral debacles to Rahul Gandhi's disqualification as an MP, there's now a piece of good news as the party will most likely win the approaching assembly polls in Karnataka and the significant victory would confer a comeback and a boost to the party to unequivocally face the upcoming polls including the 2024 general election.
Karnataka will go for a crucial assembly poll in May and it will be the only southern state where both the national rivals, BJP and Congress, would lock horns directly. The state with 224 assembly constituencies will go for a single phase poll on May 10 and the results would be declared on May 13. The Election Commission has announced the election schedule for Karnataka on Wednesday - March 29 amidst a scorching political battle.
As Karnataka is a crucial state for both the parties, winning here has become imperative for both the parties. While ruling BJP aims to retain its reign, the Congress party is envisioning to have a political comeback and to have a triumph defeating the BJP, prelude to the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. Following the announcement of the election schedule, the opinion polls on who would possibly emerge victorious in Karnataka were released and the predictions had put BJP in trouble as the Modi party will face a huge debacle.
According to the ABP News - CVoter survey, Congress will most likely win the Karnataka polls and will form a new government with clear majority. As per the survey, out of the total 224 seats, Congress is projected to win between 115 to 127 seats while BJP will eventually end up far below what the party has aimed. The saffron party has earlier asserted that it has aimed to win 150 seats but the survey has shown that the party can only able to secure 68 to 80 seats.
The main regional party in the state, Janata Dal Secular - JD(S) can win 23 to 35 seats. The opinion polls had taken BJP aback amidst playing out its typical Hindutva vote bid and polarization with the Bommai government recently announcing the recovation of reservation for Muslims and awarded it to the most prominent communities in the state with the view of reaping their votes. However, the survey had shown the dissent against the BJP in the state and in the centre has been backfiring the party.
Furthermore, the Congress party would secure 40.1% of votes, which is 2.1% increase while compared to the last elections while the BJP would witness a plummeting vote base from 36% to 34.7%. BJP's current strength in the assembly is 119 and if the results go by the prediction, it would loss over 30 seats. If BJP gets defeated in Karnataka, it will lose its only ruling state in South India.