While Chennai has been reeling towards the exponential rise of COVID-19 cases, the recent study carried out by the Tamil Nadu Dr. MGR Medical University has projected that the city would see the peaking of cases in October and the peaking period would also play an arduous effect in the rest of the districts in the state.
According to the varsity's study, the current 12 days lockdown in Chennai and its three adjacent districts may contain the spread and the enhanced lockdown may possibly defer the grounds of an early peak in October as the cases in Chennai would likely to peak in late October and early November and the exponential wave in the city would decline two weeks after attaining the peak.
The projections have put out that several districts in Tamil Nadu would join in line with reporting more COVID-19 cases and with having the current state, Tamil Nadu would likely hit the tally of 2.7 lakh COVID-19 cases by the second week of July and Chennai would account for 60% of cases in the state's tally.
The varsity's study has said that Chennai has been predicted to breach the tally of 71,000 cases by the end of June and the city would largely contribute in the rise of the state's tally which would likely hit 1.2 lakh cases in the same period. In the second week of July, the state and the city would encounter that the numbers got doubled from what was reported in June end. The study projected that Chennai would likely see 1.5 lakh cases by mid-July while Tamil Nadu's tally would possibly stand at 2.76 lakh cases of viral infection.
According to the varsity's head of epidemiology, at least 60% of the state population has to get exposed to the live virus or the vaccine virus before the state witnesses a drop in the cases. The cases would decline in a few weeks after the pandemic reaches the peak and the cases would be flattened if people started to play a major part. People should stick to the preventive measures and guidelines to break the chain of the human to human transmitting virus.
The study has also revealed that the death toll in Chennai would likely reach 1,654 by the second week of July while during the same period, the state's death toll has been projected to stand at 3,072 and apart from Chennai, several districts would account for different grounds of soaring cases based on the density of the population and level of exposure of the population to the virus.
The study suggested that containing the spread is possible only if people carry out the advised measures of wearing masks, maintaining social distancing, and the health care protocols and failing these measures would let to have the grounds for the second wave of the spread. The experts say that the lockdown measures would reduce the spread and defer the peak.
According to the experts, many districts in the state would see a rise of cases including in the urban and rural areas and added that the preventive measures would help to curb the spread and preventing the vulnerable population including people with comorbidities and old age people from the spread could reflect in reducing the mortality rate in the state.
The state of Tamil Nadu has been reporting soaring high cases and the biggest spikes for the past few days. As of Monday evening, the state has reported 62,087 positive cases so far of which 27,178 are active - including isolation, 34,112 have been discharged, and 794 had succumbed to the virus. Chennai, Kancheepuram, Thiruvallur, and Chengalpattu have been going under the enhanced lockdown and Madurai has joined the list as the temple city would be going under the complete lockdown from June 24 to June 30.